Demand, Supply, And Offtake

This chapter tests whether the project has a credible operating market. It should document who will use or pay for the asset, what inputs are required, what prices and volumes are assumed, and how concentration, seasonality, and volatility are managed.

Demand Analysis

Demand Driver	Evidence Required	Reviewer Test
Target users or customers	User counts, surveys, historical usage, customer records, or market studies.	Are the users identifiable and reachable?
Willingness or ability to pay	Price history, signed contracts, letters of intent, surveys, or affordability analysis.	Is payment capacity supported by evidence?
Service gap	Existing alternatives, unmet demand, losses, quality gaps, or access constraints.	Does the project solve a real constraint?
Utilization ramp-up	Adoption plan, sales pipeline, user onboarding, or seasonality model.	Are early-year assumptions realistic?

Supply And Input Analysis

Supply Item	Source	Volume Basis	Quality Requirement	Risk	Mitigation
[Input]	[Supplier or source area]	[Monthly or annual quantity]	[Specification]	[Risk]	[Mitigation]

Supply analysis should address raw materials, utilities, labor, spare parts, logistics, technical services, and any feedstock or product flow that determines utilization.

Offtake And Customer Evidence

Buyer / Customer	Instrument	Volume	Price Basis	Tenor	Status	Evidence Location
[Name]	Contract / LOI / survey / order history	[Volume]	[Price]	[Term]	Draft / Signed / Conditional	[Atlas location]

Assumption Controls

Sponsors must document price, volume, collection, FX, commodity, and policy assumptions where relevant. Each assumption should state the base case, downside case, source, and update cadence.

Caution

Letters of intent and informal buyer conversations are useful evidence, but they are not the same as binding offtake contracts. The Project Information Model must label each evidence type accurately.